Amongst the bewildering array of new developments sparked by the rapid-fire expansion of Artificial Intelligence, comes an interesting point put forward by Stephen Fry.
This is that we are seeing a convergence of seemingly separate technological breakthroughs. He cites the examples of nanotechnology, robotics, and 3D printing alongside Artificial Intelligence.
The main thrust of his argument is that what we are being presented with is unlike anything we have seen before.
In a similar vein, Yuval Noah Harari emphasises how we might benefit from a slight reframing of the label Artificial Intelligence, to Inorganic Intelligence. Again, stressing that we have never experienced such an alien form of intelligence.
Up to this time, all intelligence encountered has arisen out of organic entities, even the computer chip is programmed by humans, so whilst the desktop computer and the mobile phone are in some ways highly intelligent, they are not independently intelligent. Meaning they don’t possess any mechanism to evolve their intelligence from within their own programming.
An Inorganic Intelligent entity is different, it can start to learn and make choices and can self-direct where it takes itself.
This nuanced position is important as it is unprecedented. Harari even claims this is effectively a new type of life form that is arising on Earth, with far greater intelligence than anything seen before.
The converging technologies are already presenting some incredible insights into what is coming.
For instance, with property, there are remarkable videos online, if you know where to look, of robotic mechanisms combing with 3D printers to build and put up new houses.
This is all bit clunky at the moment – the houses being constructed lack style and true polishing touches. However, it remains impressive to already see a house being built in hours, based on instructions from a 3D printing device.
If we view pictures of early desktops, they also look slightly strange now, in the world of the iMac. It is safe to assume that 3D printed properties will take on a whole new look in the near future – and we know the speed of advancement is much quicker today, so, say within 10 years, it is likely many properties will be built this way.
If a decent sized property can be built in a few hours then that will have a knock on impact to costs, and therefore prices.
Although not directly connected, it is also relevant to look at the latest trend in the US around ‘pop-up’ homes, selling for less than $10,000.
These one bedroom houses are stylish, sustainable, unbelievably efficient in all ways, for example with the use of space, and are being offered as a first home to people who would otherwise rent or not have access to owning their own property.
For a young couple, currently renting, this can save them thousands of dollars per year, give them their own home, and establish their presence on the property ladder, for a fraction of the price of the normal starter home.
This disruptive tech-enabled initiative is powering forward and must impact the wider property market. Let’s say such a home can be financed with a 10% deposit, then the monthly cost of borrowing might be $150/$200 – compared to rents ten times that amount.
Then there is the drag this will create on properties higher up the chain, if the new first time homes are in this category – imagine how this will reduce the values all the way up the chain.
It’s true the US has much more land than the UK, but even so the trendline is established.
It seems odd to think that the advancing and variable tech developments, including AI, could have such a pull on the property market – but this does appear where things are heading.
The unarguable point is that the newness of all of this is staggering to behold. Exactly what is coming is unknown, but it may just be that we are going to see a shattering of the property market, and we should plan accordingly, assuming anything is possible.
Maybe relying on our property value for sustaining us into old age, may not be the most reliable strategy. Hence, why we should always prepare, risk manage and diversify.